Went long equities in mid-April, 100% of portfolio to ride this bear market rally. Up xxx% last two months.
2Q almost over, 20/50/200 EMA and SMA moving average supports ALL broken on S&P 500, second leg down to come?
I'm thinking this move down is precipitated by market's false belief mortgage crisis is over: the reason median housing prices are actually increasing is contagion moving upmarket to alt-a, prime, jumbo market forcing sales in those higher priced categories from real economic distress, not outright fraud (as occurred in subprime markets). Read Mr. Mortgage.
Sold portfolio today, and went short equities, short oil, long vix today. We'll see...we are at a key juncture..this week's action will be critical to how the market plays out in 3Q
Monday, June 22, 2009
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I think the last week was a retracing of the s&p back to 900 from its highs. It was past the moving averages 50/100 day and looked overbought. I think a drop to 900 was necessary, although I am not sure if it would need to go lower before it can resume. Summer months are hard to gauge.
I don't know. Valuations started breaching the bubble-icious territory across the board in emerging market equities two weeks ago and I'm starting to see significant resistance to higher highs.
Buy to Sell ratios are not showing any strength either.
The selloff was pretty monotonic today on good volume with lower lows.
We'll see, could be a headfake..
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