A long term investment for my retirement portfolio: Novo Nordisk
One consequence of China and India's development has been the rapid rise out of subsistence living and poverty for hundreds of millions of people. As living conditions improve, western foods have become more popular in both areas.
Unfortunately, hundreds of years of malnourishment has created a perverse situation in which those who rise out of subsistence living rapidly develop diabetes, and the situation will get worse in the next 20 years as migration patterns move people from rural areas to urban areas where they are more likely to change eating patterns.
Hence the market for Novo Nordisks diabetes treatment products will grow at an accelerated pace over the next 20 years, especially as China and India rapidly develop. Demographics will be the overpowering underlying force that will continue to push this low-beta stock on its upward trajectory.
While past performance does not guarantee future results, Novo Nordisk has indefatigably increased earnings and has never had a return under 50% for any five year period over the past 25 years.
Sunday, November 21, 2010
Trading Idea: Short AOL, Long BIDU/SINA/SOHU/NTES
Trading Idea: Short AOL, Long BIDU/SINA/SOHU/NTES
AOL is a dying company.
AOL's dialup service is dying at a rate of a 25%+ drop in customer base each year, and, unlike Yahoo, they have no stakes in anything worthwhile, having sold off ICQ and bebo (no Alibaba, no Yahoo Japan for AOL). AOL's entire business model going forward relies on site traffic to its web properties which are dying a slow death as well. I predict AOL ceases to function as a standalone entity in the next 5 years, dying a slow death over that time frame and merging with another has-been, such as Yahoo, once the situation becomes desperate enough for the both of them.
On the other hand, Google's exit from China bodes well for Baidu, and the rapid increase in internet usage and cultural proclivity towards internet use in China bodes well for Baidu, Sina, Sohu, and Netease over the next 5 years.
AOL is a dying company.
AOL's dialup service is dying at a rate of a 25%+ drop in customer base each year, and, unlike Yahoo, they have no stakes in anything worthwhile, having sold off ICQ and bebo (no Alibaba, no Yahoo Japan for AOL). AOL's entire business model going forward relies on site traffic to its web properties which are dying a slow death as well. I predict AOL ceases to function as a standalone entity in the next 5 years, dying a slow death over that time frame and merging with another has-been, such as Yahoo, once the situation becomes desperate enough for the both of them.
On the other hand, Google's exit from China bodes well for Baidu, and the rapid increase in internet usage and cultural proclivity towards internet use in China bodes well for Baidu, Sina, Sohu, and Netease over the next 5 years.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
