Hoarders

Haven't they heard of storage? Especially Ron, who has a lot of valuable collectibles, I would think it would make sense to have it in secure storage!

Rebel feud puts UK's Libya policy in jeopardy

:: As I said in earlier posts Libya is a nation of dozens of tribes and the current strategy is doomed to put the country into extreme in-fighting and possibly civil war if they ever actually succeed in eliminating Gaddafi::

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/rebel-feud-puts-uks-libya-policy-in-jeopardy-2328626.html

Rebel feud puts UK's Libya policy in jeopardy

Government demands answers after assassination of general

By Kim Sengupta, Defence Correspondent

Saturday, 30 July 2011

The credibility of the British-backed rebel forces in Libya has been thrown into doubt after the shock assassination of a top military commander led to claims that the movement is enmeshed in a bloody internal feud.

Increasing evidence has begun to emerge that the savage killings of General Abdel Fatah Younes and two other senior officers – who were shot and whose bodies were burnt – may have been carried out by their own side.

Short AOL

As predicted in the prior posts, the acquisition of Huff Post = blowing AOL's cash.

Short AOL to the single digits.

Sold CL at $100

Sold CL at $100

Long stupidity

Genius may have its limitations, but stupidity is not thus handicapped.
Elbert Hubbard

Re-examined situation in US and Europe.

Still of the conclusion that the US will raise debt ceiling, but will play chicken to the last possible second, while Europe will dilly-dally in regard to Greece (seriously, why wait all the way until Thursday to meet?) and then come up with some half-baked scheme to socialize debt haircuts amongst private investors that the markets will definitely not like and will amount to a Greek default.

In light of that I am long gold again with a small position and looking for a buying opportunity over the next day from a CHANGE downward thanks to some short-lived HOPE.

Tick tock tick tock

VIX nice uptick, Gold doing nicely moving with some incredible strength, though I closed those two trades at a small profit to free up some gunpowder to short additional EUR:USD.

US will resolve its debt ceiling issue at some point over the next 10 days, whereas I still read Greece as still waist deep and soon to be neck deep.

EUR:USD short working out very well.

Turkey accession to the EU

I wonder if Turkey had been integrated to the EU 5 years ago if it would have reduced Greece's large military expenditure sufficiently relative to GDP to make a significant difference in the current crisis (which is solely because of a perceived threat from Turkey).

Here comes the default

Long VOL

Never waste a good crisis

Situation seems to have gone from bad to worse and soon catastrophe if EU leaders are serious about having peripheral countries default.

Reminds me of Lehman when everyone claimed they had limited and controllable exposure.

I'm leaning towards closing my WTI long which I bought at the end of Friday and shorting risky assets as risk hat comes off and carry trades unwind, specifically shorting AUD:USD. I may also short EUR:USD.

I'll have to do some analysis come the morning.

Long AUD:USD

Closed out short EUR long AUD (see prior post comments) after a nice final push thanks to Trichet's speech, 150 pips profit.

Risk on hat is on everyone's head.

Short EUR:AUD

After taking a look at the various markets, my conclusion is that there is opportunity in shorting the euro and going long the aussie.

1) EU crisis resolution will result in pile on for risk and carry trade
2) EU crisis exacerbation (as long as it does not spread outside the EU) will result in weakening of the Euro

Risks to this trade are a Chinese hard landing.

Yay, commodities party!

Brent WTI spread is moving all over the place, first it improved from yesterday then fell back then improved fell back again. I am closing this trade at a small loss.

Barron's calling for $150 Oil by Spring 2012?

I'm conflicted on this one, Barron's is a decent financial publication.

If Fortune were calling for $150 Oil by Spring 2012 I'd be liable to take an outright long-term short position. We'll see how the other magazine covers go over the next few months.

Short Brent, Long WTI

Short Brent, Long WTI

Long Brent Short WTI spread seems overbought.

Brent's forward curve is no longer in backwardation over the next year.

With Standard & Poor's reporting that the French proposal for Greek debt to be rolled over into long maturity bonds would be viewed as a default, and China's weak PMI report it seems like demand side risk to Brent outweighs that of WTI.

Eliminating the deficit, what would it take?

"Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pound ought and six, result misery."



US Federal Revenue is about 2.2 trillion, expenditures about 3.5 trillion.

The only way to cut expenditures is to cut expenditures, there is nothing to debate there.

Increasing revenue can be accomplished through economic growth and/or higher taxes.

If expenditures are cut 5% per year for the next 5 years (nominal terms) and revenue increased 3.5% per year for the next 5 years (nominal terms), we no longer have a deficit.

To really eliminate the deficit, Republicans need to accept that defense spending needs to decrease, and Democrats need to accept that entitlement programs are an actuarial disaster already happening and need to be reined in.

Doubt it will happen, it's always easier to spend other people's money.